Raiders shock Broncos with win at Mile High

Football Betting Lines

11/23/2008 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darren McFadden rushed for a pair of scores and Ashley Lelie added a touchdown catch as the Oakland Raiders surprised the Denver Broncos with a 31-10 win at Invesco Field at Mile High.

JaMarcus Russell was effective, completing 10-of-11 passes for 152 yards with one touchdown for the Raiders (3-8), who snapped a four-game losing streak. Justin Fargas rushed for 107 yards on 24 carries, while McFadden had 38 yards on the ground.

McFadden's one-yard touchdown run with 5:26 remaining in the third quarter was Oakland's first offensive score in 15 quarters of play, a span that covered 206 plays from scrimmage. Lelie had four grabs for 92 yards and Johnnie Lee Higgins returned a punt 89 yards for a score.

Jay Cutler struggled, finishing a woeful 16-of-37 for 204 yards with an interception for Denver (6-5), which has dropped four of its last six. Peyton Hillis rushed 17 times for 74 yards and a score for the Broncos.

With the Raiders holding a 10-3 lead after one half, the hosts came out of the locker room and found the end zone after a well-orchestrated 13-play, 85-yard drive. Facing a 4th-and-inches from the Oakland six-yard-line, Hillis took the handoff from Cutler, ran around the left end and in for the score to tie the contest.

In a back-and-forth affair, Russell hooked up for a 51-yard pass play to Lelie moving it to the Denver 19. Six plays later, McFadden took a pitch in for the score from a yard out to put the Raiders ahead by a 17-10 margin.

"To me that was the real drive of the game," said Raiders coach Tom Cable. "The defense had a rough drive, there were a couple of penalties in that drive. They came down and got a touchdown, but we answered right away. I thought that was huge. It's the first time we've really done that all year."

After a sputtering Denver offense went three-and-out on its next series, Russell connected with Lelie for a four-yard TD. The score finished off a 10- play, 74-yard drive, making it a 24-10 game in the early stages in the fourth quarter.

Another McFadden one-yard scoring run with 9:42 left in the contest put the Silver and Black in front by a commanding 21 points. Neither team would add points the rest of the way and Oakland earned the 31-10 victory.

The Raiders got a bit of revenge on the Broncos, who came into Oakland and won the season-opener 41-14 on a Monday night.

"We knew they were going to come in here and play hard," said Cutler. "We kind of embarrassed them the first game on Monday night. They've got a good defense. We knew we had our hands full and they came out to play."

After a scoreless first quarter, Sebastian Janikowski's 26-yard chip shot capped a nine-play, 56-yard drive to give the Raiders the lead with 8:01 left in the half. Behind some accurate passing by Russell and hard running by Fargas, Oakland quickly moved the ball downfield and had a 1st-and-goal on the Denver three-yard-line. However a Broncos' goal-line stand forced the visitors to settle for the three.

Matt Prater's field goal from 44 yards away on the Broncos' ensuing drive tied the contest with 2:58 remaining.

Oakland finally found the end zone with 1:06 remaining in the opening half. Following a three-and-out by Denver, Higgins fielded Brett Kern's punt at the Raiders 11, brushed off a couple of weak Broncos tacklers and tip-toed down the near sideline for the score. Higgins was then flagged for a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for doing a celebratory back flip in the end zone.

Prater's 43-yard effort sailed wide left as time expired in the first half and Oakland took a 10-3 advantage into the break.

Game Notes

Denver will visit the New York Jets on November 30, while Oakland hosts Kansas City...The Raiders have not scored a first-quarter touchdown this season and have not scored a first-quarter touchdown on the road since September 30, 2007...The Raiders lead the all-time regular season series with Denver, which dates back to 1960, by a 55-40-2 count...Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan is now 21-7 against the team he coached in 1988 and part of the 1989 season before being fired...Brandon Marshall had four catches for 84 yards for Denver.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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